Record where every failed episode ends - an end-state confusion matrix showed all failures finishing seated and overturned a "cannot roll over" diagnosis that per-category success rates hide by construction
end-state-confusion-matrix.For any multi-category acceptance, report where each failed episode ends, not only which category it started in; it costs a few lines and no extra simulation, and it separates "cannot reach the goal" from "reaches the wrong basin".
Symptom
Prone scored 0% for three generations; the working diagnosis was "prone lacks the roll-over skill", and R0.3 spent a run adding prone-to-side roll-arc start states. It bought nothing: the 45-deg roll band itself only moved from 24.2% to 26.6% after 3,000 iterations.
Context
Acceptance reported success per starting category. A final-state table (lying prone / on the side / supine / seated / standing for every failed episode) was added to accept_recovery.py at R0.3.
Change
The confusion matrix became a permanent part of the acceptance output, and the prone diagnosis was rewritten from it.
Outcome
The prone, side and supine columns were all zero - every failure ended seated - and prone had righted its torso in 159/159 episodes (tilt under 30 deg in 100%). The missing ability was standing up from one specific seated configuration, not rolling over, which redirected the next rungs to foot placement and to a configuration probe.
Mechanism
Per-category success rates collapse "reached the wrong basin" and "never reached anything" into the same zero; the end state separates them.
Applies when
- a category sits at 0% and the diagnosis rests on its label
- recovery, manipulation or navigation tasks with distinct terminal states
- an intervention aimed at the presumed cause shows no effect
“**① 末态混淆矩阵 —— 固化(已在 `accept_recovery.py`)。** 它给出的 "趴/侧躺/仰躺三列全 0、所有失败都终于坐姿"是本线最改变决策的一个事实, 而**逐类成功率按构造看不见它**。 … 成本十来行、零额外仿真。 … **② prone 病因更正(旧诊断作废)。** 旧:"缺翻身"。新:**prone 159/159 全部 把躯干翻正**”